![]() This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.ĭata Availability: All data and coding files are available at. Received: FebruAccepted: Published: May 26, 2021Ĭopyright: © 2021 Grewar et al. PLoS ONE 16(5):Įditor: Martin Chtolongo Simuunza, University of Zambia, ZAMBIA Not only do the outcomes of this study inform domestic control, they can also be used for scientifically justified trade decision making, since in-country movement control forms a key component of export protocols.Ĭitation: Grewar JD, Kotze JL, Parker BJ, van Helden LS, Weyer CT (2021) An entry risk assessment of African horse sickness virus into the controlled area of South Africa through the legal movement of equids. Control measures decrease risk by a factor of 2.8 on an annual basis. Spatial analysis showed that, even though reported case totals were zero throughout 2019 in the Western Cape, horses originating from this province still pose a risk that should not be ignored. Direct non-quarantine movements made up most movements and accounted for most of the risk of entry. ![]() The annual risk of AHSV entry compared well with the annual probability of introduction of AHS into the controlled area, which is ~10% based on the last 20 years of outbreak data. The median monthly probability of entry of AHSV into the controlled area of South Africa ranged from 0.75% (June) to 5.73% (February), with the annual median probability of entry estimated at 20.21% (95% CI: 15.89%-28.89%). Sensitivity analysis evaluated model variables on their impact on the conditional means of the probability of entry. ![]() These were aggregated to annual probability of entry. Using 2019 movement and AHS case data, and country-wide census data, a stochastic model was developed establishing local municipality level entry risk of AHSV at monthly intervals. A ‘no-control’ scenario allowed for evaluation of the impact of control measures. Outcomes were subcategorised to evaluate movement pathway, temporal, and spatial differences in risk. Our objective was to quantitatively establish the risk of entry of AHS virus into the AHS controlled area through the legal movement of horses. The country is zoned with movement control measures facilitating an AHS-free controlled area in the south-west. South Africa is endemic for African horse sickness (AHS), an important health and trade-sensitive disease of equids.
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